By Binta Jaiteh
According to the recently conducted survey of the Center for Policy, Research and Strategy Studies (CepRass) on elections opinion polls ahead of the Mayoral and Chairmanship Local Government Elections, revealed that likely to win in Kanifing Municipal Council the United Democratic Party candidate Mayor Talib Ahmed Bensouda holds a commanding 55% of the support.
The intention to vote is led by UDP’s Bensouda half of the respondents (50%), followed by NPP’s Bakary Badjie with 28 percentage points between the two. Only 27% of respondents in Kanifing are not decided or secretive with their decision, which is the lowest across all regions. Hence, our predictive outcome.
During the presentation on Saturday held at NaNA Hall, the opinion poll findings by Mustapha Jobarteh said the race is not without uncertainties, as a considerable 24% of respondents remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in support.
Challenging the UDP’s dominance in Kanifing is the National Progressive Party (NPP) candidate, Bakary Y. Badjie with 19% of the support, Badjie and the NPP are positioned as formidable contenders, seeking to break the UDP’s hold on the municipality.
Intention to vote and likely to win, according to him, in Mansakonko, the UDP’s Landing Sanneh leads on intention to vote at 32%, followed by NPP’s Kebba Dem at 28%. However, two-thirds of the respondents (40%) in Mansakonko are either not decided or are secretive about their intention to vote.
He said taking center stage in the opinion polls race is the United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate, Landing B. Sanneh with 39% support. However, the battle for Mansakonko Area Council is far from one-sided and the situation remains fluid, with a significant percentage of respondents, 35%, unable to determine the likely winner.
Jobarteh noted that the NPP’s candidate follows Landing Sanneh close at 28%. However, the large number of undecided (secret) voters means that we cannot predict the outcome of the election.
He further stated that intention to vote and likely to win that on the intention to vote in Brikama, nearly half (48%) of the respondents are either undecided or prefer to keep their intentions secret. Of the remaining, NPP’s Seedy Ceesay leads the rest (21%) followed by UDP’s Yankuba Darboe (19%).
He added that the independent candidates each do not pull more than 5% on the likely to win, 42% of respondents are unable to determine the likely winner but some candidates have emerged as strong contenders in the race. The United Democratic Party (UDP)’s candidate, Yankuba Darboe, currently holds a considerable level of support at 23%. Challenging the UDP’s dominance is the National People’s Party (NPP) candidate, Seedy Sheriff Ceesay, who has garnered 22% support.
He stressed that, with the results for the intention to vote and likely to win contradicting, as well as a high proportion of undecided (and secret) voters, we cannot conclude on the likely winner in Brikama.
He posited that, in this survey, potential voters were asked about what they think of the purpose of establishing the Commission of Inquiry on Local Councils, and results indicate that the majority (58%) of the respondents think it is for transparency and accountability, 41% said it is a witch-hunt, while 31% believed it is for corruption.
Jobarteh said respondents were asked about vote buying, the survey findings show that 46% of the respondents reported ‘yes’ vote buying is taking place, while 41 said ‘no’ and 13% stated they have no idea about the issue. The Center is mainly engaged in research, consultancy, and training for private and public institutions within and outside The Gambia as part of efforts to strengthen democracy and good governance in The Gambia.
An opinion poll (OP) survey is an essential tool for gauging public opinion on various issues, including political contests like mayoral and chairmanship elections. In the context of such an election, an opinion poll survey involves asking a sample of voters about their voting intentions, preferences, attitudes towards the candidates, and so on. are very popular in modern democracies and are used in many instances to gauge public opinion ahead of important national government elections. He stated
The Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies (CepRass) has just completed this opinion poll survey for the forthcoming Mayoral and Chairmanship elections in The Gambia. The objective is to seek an understanding of potential voters voting intentions and perceptions of candidates, key elections, and local government issues surrounding the upcoming election, among other things, with the view to inform the public regarding the likely outcomes of the election will be.