By Modou Kanteh
The Department of Water Resources under the Ministry of Fisheries, Water Resources and National Assembly Matters has released the 2024 annual rainfall prediction in the Gambia.
According to official statement from the department, the predicted rainfall amount over the country is very likely to be above average. This prediction is from July-August-September (JAS), when approximately 80 per cent of the total rainfall occurs in The Gambia. It is expected that the western sector of the country is very likely to receive more rain than the rest of the country.
The Department of Water Resources (DWR) produces the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) annually. This is in line with the department’s statutory responsibility to advise the Government and people of The Gambia on all aspects of weather and climate. The seasonal forecast was produced by using state-of-the-art forecasting tools, farming practices and contemporary scientific knowledge. This information is relevant for policy formulation, planning and decision making by stakeholders, and individuals in both private and public sectors
Officials from the department have indicated that the rainfall is expected to start from Upper River Region and end up in the Greater Banjul Area. The predicted date for the rainfall is from 9-15 June 2024 over the eastern and central sectors of the country and likely to be delayed to 20th June 2024 over the western sector of the country. The rainfall cessation is predicted to be around end of October.
As at now, the above forecast is based on the best estimate of the impact of the various factors affecting rainfall in the country. The department would be updating the public on a monthly basis starting from the end of June 2024.
A forecast is just a set of probabilities attached to a set of future events. In order to understand a forecast, all one needs to do is to interpret those bits of information.
The 2024 seasonal forecast, while predicting generally favourable characteristics, may also have negative implications alongside or instead of the more expected positive ones. Indeed, in areas where above-average rainfall totals, early season onset dates, above-average to average runoffs and short dry spells are expected, it is not excluded to observe inconvenient situations that can, for example, be linked to excess humidity, rapid filling of low-pressure areas and overflowing of rivers, the rise of groundwater, the poor preparation of the agricultural season and transhumance movements, the impassability of roads, the difficulties of travel and access to areas of vital, economic and health interests.
The likely risks related to the expected characteristics of the 2024 rainy season can be many and varied depending on the area. The wet nature of the season portends significant risks of flooding, submersion and therefore reduction of arable land, destruction of infrastructure (homes, roads, markets and schools, etc.), loss of crops and fodder, drowning of livestock and human beings, proliferation of germs of waterborne and diarrheal diseases (cholera, malaria, schistosomiasis etc.), crop pest outbreaks, water pollution, restriction of movement of people and animals, soil water erosion, silting up of watercourses, weed outbreaks, post-harvest losses, loss of human and animal lives, etc.